I know what everyone is thinking here…why in the world would you waste your time trying to convince me that J.K. Dobbins deserves to be drafted as an RB1? Allow me to enlighten you.
Since J.K. took over the RB1 role on his own squad, the Baltimore Ravens, he has been on a blistering pace of production. To be exact, his pace if you stretched it out over a full season from week 9-17 last season, would place him as a 1,000 plus yard rusher and give him over 12 TDs.
Dobbins had a rush TD, or multiple rush TDs, in each of his last 4 games of the 2020 regular season. During that span, he faced some pretty bad defenses with the exception of the Cleveland Browns in week 14. However, his strength of schedule ranks right in the middle of the league for 2021. This means that he will no doubt have several very favorable matchups throughout the course of the regular season.
In fact, looking through the Ravens schedule for the first 7 weeks of the season, Dobbins gets 6 out of the 7 weeks with favorable to very favorable matchups per FantasyPros. The only questionable matchup in that span comes in week 6 against what is expected to be a stout Colts run defense.
I know that Lamar Jackson’s involvement in the Ravens running game is not an ideal situation to have the primary back flourish. That being said, Baltimore has made it very clear who their RB1 is by their use of Dobbins over the last 8 weeks of the 2020 season. I fully expect J.K. Dobbins to finish as an RB1 in fantasy this year, despite all the factors pointing to the contrary.